forensic-stat
Learning materials for Intro to Statistics in Forensic Science
Intro to Statistics for Forensic Science
These materials were created for “The Basics of DNA Evidence” workshop taught by the Forensic University in Spring 2022.
Learning outcomes
By the end of the course, you will be able to
- explain what are probabilities and how they are computed in practice
- select the correct probability rule depending on the situation: product rule, addition rule or conditional probabilities rule
- describe the main fallacies when interpreting probabilities
Syllabus
| Topic | Key take-away points | Lecture notes |
|---|---|---|
| 1. What is probability? | i) When it comes to probabilities, we do not trust our gut, we trust the formulas; ii) We estimate population probabilities from observed frequencies in samples; iii) The chosen sample is very important | notes |
| 2. How do we combine probabilities? | i) Product rule: we can calculate the probability of simultaneous events when they are independent; ii) Addition rule: we can calculate the probability of different disjoint events | notes |
| 3. How do we update probabilities when new information is available? | i) The conditional probability allows us to update a probability with new information; ii) Very important not to confuse the conditioning event as probabilities would change | notes |
YouTube video of the lecture
You can find the 90-minute lecture including all three topics in this link.
Meet the instructor
Claudia Solís-Lemus is an assistant professor at the Wisconsin Institute for Discovery and the Department of Plant Pathology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Originally from Mexico City, she did her Undergraduate degrees in Actuarial Sciences and Applied Mathematics at ITAM. Then, she did a MA in Mathematics and a PhD in Statistics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
